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Thread: Estimated Guar seed production, Carry over stock and availability for 2016-2017

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    Default Estimated Guar seed production, Carry over stock and availability for 2016-2017

    Will guar seed drop down lower than INR 2982 or move higher than INR 4200 ?


    After the strong forward position in Future market Guar prices hit high and crossed 3300/100Kg. Guar seed is regularly under pressure after the harvesting of fresh crop. At the starting of harvesting guar seed prices were trading at 4200/100 Kg on 12th October 2015, after that guar seed started to fall regularly due to excess production and low consumption. Falling crude prices hit if double strike.


    Within two months on 14/12/2015 guar reached down to 3100/100 Kg. from that level it started to gain and on 04/01/2016 guar reached INR 3425/100 Kg. From that level it again started to go down and on 02/03/2016 it reached to lowest level of last four year at INR 2982/100 Kg. It recovered form that level and it reached to INR 3557/100Kg on 25th April 2016 and it again started to fell down and dropped to INR 3100/100Kg on 21/06/2016.







    Guar seed is moving between INR 2982/100Kg to INR 4200/100Kg. Now Guar seed has two directions lower than 2982 and upper than 4200. There are three major factors which will decide the rate of Guar those are Production of Guar , Holding of Guar and Consumption of Guar.


    Production of Guar


    For complete information please visit following page

    Estimated Guar seed production, Carry over stock and availability of guar seed for this financial Year 2016-2017










    As per above figure total Guar seed production will be 5, 00,000 MT (50 Lac Bags). Last year guar seed production was 27,51,423 MT (2.75 Crore Bags), as per traders it was only 2 Crore Bags. Around 3,60,000 MT Guar gum has been exported last year, means around 10,80,000 MT Guar seed has been processed only for export purpose. IF we add 30% for domestic purpose then total 15,00,000 MT Guar seed has been processed or 1.5Crore Bags has been processed. 16,000 MT guar seed has been used for sowing. Generally there is 18 %-20% moisture at the time of harvesting it reached up to 10-12% in one year. 6% average moisture loss of total weight that will be around 1,65,085 MT moisture loss. There is another 5 % loss of sand, plant parts, low quality and domestic use by farmer, that is 1,37,571 MT guar seed. total carry forward for this production year it is 12,32,768 MT or 1.23 Crore Bags It is in very loose condition as per Govt data of production. If there is 2 Crore bags guar seed production instead of 2.75 Crore then carry forward will be only 50 Lac Bags.



    As per market men/ traders this figure is not more than 7,50,000 MT guar seed in market including last carry forward. At maximum side only 7,50,000 MT (75 Lac bags) of Guar seed is lying with farmers/ traders/ stockist/ factories.


    Total Availability of Guar seed for this financial year and up to next production arrival ( Total one year and Six month up October 2018) will be 1,73,27,670 Bags or 17,32,676 MT ( 1,23,27,670 Bags: current Carry forward 50,00,00 Bags : Current year expected production).


    2015-2016


    Availability of guar seed from last production Year 2015-2016 Consumption of guar in last Financial Year 2015-2016
    Particular
    MT
    Particular
    MT
    Carry over of guar seed 2014-2015
    3,00,000
    Guar seed Consumption
    15,00,000
    Guar seed Production
    ( 2015-16 year)
    27,51,423
    Guar Seed for Sowing ( this year)
    (10,00,000 hectare)
    16,000

    Moisture loss 6% on current production
    1,65,085

    Farmer use, low quality, plant parts and other 5% on production
    1,37,571

    Holding of commodity
    / Carry forward
    12,32,767
    30,51,423
    30,51,423
    Over supply from last production cycle for this Year- 12,32,767 MT (more than 1.23 Crore Bags)


    2016-2017 (If demand and Crude rate remains same)


    Availability of guar seed from this production Year 2016-2017 Consumption of guar in this Financial Year 2016-2017 and next 6 month up production 2017- October
    Particular
    MT
    Particular
    MT
    Carry over of guar seed 2015-2016
    12,32,767
    Guar seed Consumption
    ( one year + 6 month)
    21,50,000
    Guar Seed Production
    ( 2016-17 year)
    5,00,000
    Guar Seed for swoing ( next year)
    (20,00,000 hectare)
    32,000

    Moisture loss + Farmer use + low quality 5% on total
    86,638

    Holding of commodity

    17,32,767
    22,68,638
    Deficiency /supply shortage of guar seed up to next production cycle- 5,35,871 MT (Around 53.5 Lac Bags)




    (Finical Year- April to March; Guar production & guar consumption Cycle - October to September)


    Holding of Guar


    For complete information please visit following page

    Estimated Guar seed production, Carry over stock and availability of guar seed for this financial Year 2016-2017





    Consumption of Guar


    For complete information please visit following page

    Estimated Guar seed production, Carry over stock and availability of guar seed for this financial Year 2016-2017
    Last edited by guargum; July 16th, 2016 at 10:55 AM.
    Ganesh Prajapat, B.Sc.(Ag.), M.B.A. ( International Business )
    Agro Tech , 402- Fourth Floor, Gordhan Sky Tower, Khatipura Road, Jaipur (Rajasthan) INDIA -302012, Contact : +91-9509888669, +91-7891569659
    Email: ganeshprajapat@gmail.com Web : www.agrotechconsultancy.in
    Blog: www.guargumcultivation.com

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